Everyone is talking these days about the inevitable march
towards 4G due to the increased demand in wireless data capacity. For existing wireless operators, this means
planning and investing in new LTE or WiMAX networks, an expensive and
time-consuming proposition. Operators
like Verizon Wireless and Sprint have been aggressive in their rollout plans
for LTE and WiMAX, respectively, while continuing to invest in their existing
3G data networks. AT&T, on the other
hand, has also publicized plans to move to LTE, but their 4G timeframes are
further out than Verizon and Sprint.
AT&T has chosen to meet the short-term demand by deploying HSPA 7.2,
a solution that addresses the hungry iPhone appetite for data via a software
upgrade to their existing 3G network. Apple has taken advantage of this network
upgrade with their new 3GS iPhones (and, coincidentally, compelled many
existing iPhone users to upgrade their phones…).
For CDMA operators
who have deployed EV-DO wireless data networks, a software upgrade solution
also exists to meet wireless data demand in the short term: Multi-carrier Rev A
(aka Rev B). This solution provides comparable
peak throughput speeds to HSPA7.2 (6.2 Mbps downstream vs. 7.2 Mbps for HSPA),
requires no network equipment upgrades, and maintains backwards compatibility
with existing handsets. Asian operators
such as KDDI and CTC have announced plans to deploy Multi-carrier Rev A in
their EV-DO networks.
However, the biggest headwind for North American CDMA
operators in deploying this network upgrade is a handset as bandwidth hungry as
the iPhone. The Droid, the Palm Pre, and
the Storm2 are potential contenders to drive this data demand, and time will
tell if users of these devices will require faster wireless data speeds. By
that time, however, the decision device manufacturers will need to make is whether
to offer upgrades to these popular devices with a) LTE/WiMAX support or b) Multi-carrier
Rev A support. My bet is on the Droid to
pull ahead and set the bar for data demand among EV-DO devices, primarily due
to its lead in application inventory (but that discussion is for another post).
It will be interesting to follow the
Droid through 2010 to see how it affects both Verizon Wireless and Motorola’s
strategy for addressing the user’s demand for wireless data capacity. Perhaps the Droid popularity will force both
of their hands to move to a Multi-carrier Rev A solution in the short term in
lieu of deploying a nationwide LTE network.
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